Update on Reactor Status - Our Best Guess

A couple of things we have suspected recently (as have many others in the business) have apparently been confirmed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment as reported by the NY Times. Simply put, things are still very serious:

* The amount of seawater dumped into the reactor containment along with the melting fuel has caused a situation where it seems unlikely that much cooling water is circulating around and thus cooling the fuel. The fuel in a normal situation in a reactor has extremely tight tolerances for water to pass between the rods. The water removes the heat from the fuel in the same way coolant works on your car engine. Now if you can imagine dumping large quantities of seawater into an incredibly hot frying pan - you would see the water instantly turn to steam leaving behind the thick salt residue. Since seawater is usually in the rough region of 36,000 ppm salt - the buildup from the massive volumes of seawater boiling off would cause clogging of these tight water passages. You don't need to be a nuclear scientist to see this.

* The buildup of Hydrogen gas is still a big concern. The Hydrogen (and Oxygen) is generated as a result of the interaction of the water molecules with gamma radiation (this is the very simple version). In a normal plant, the Hydrogen build up is managed through controlled systems - in the Japanese disaster this was not possible resulting in a couple of explosions and subsequent releases. The US NRC seems to believe that the Hydrogen issue is a continuing problem.

* Finally - and our biggest concern - the spent fuel pools are exposed to the air and cooling is not restored. No one really knows what may or may not have been released from the pools at this point.

Unfortunately, the authorities and TEPCO are still in the emergency response phase of the disaster and much of this information including where the released materials dispersed will not be known until the recovery phase begins.

I know there are experts and technicians standing by around the world ready to help. We continue to pray for our friends in Japan.

Public Seminars Available Soon

We are planning to conduct seminars in Tokyo in the very near future. We are working on the final details including sponsoring organizations. We will conduct the seminars in English initially and are working on Japanese translations and instructors. (Volunteers would be great!) The seminars will be free to the public - we also hope to complete a deal with a local media group to provide the information online.

Beyond these free seminars, we are preparing basic short courses for presentation to any interested local governmental officials in the area of Tokyo and north toward the location of the disasters. Stay tuned for details.

The concept of the course is to provide basic information on the disaster along with practical information on public protection and disaster management techniques.

What We're Finding in Japan

We are preparing to release some information in the next couple of days. Should be interesting (at least to the HP geeks out there) - we will post some google map data also. I know there have been a few "crowd sourced' radiation surveys floating around but these should be viewed with skepticism as anyone can publish to these and lots of posters have agendas. I also have a difficult time believing that thousands of average Japan citizens have at their disposal accurately calibrated and appropriate radiation detection equipment. So - buyer beware on the crowd sourcing.

Here's a bit of information. One of our earliest observations in the Tokyo area is that the contact ground surveys (gamma, beta, alpha) are elevated. However, once the top layer of soil is scraped away, the soil below seems to exhibit lower (ie background) readings. The implications of this are obvious but require more data. As we go through our QA / QC process we can shake out exactly what we are finding.